The possible election of Doug Jones, a Democrat, in deep-red Alabama would alter the balance of power in the Senate and could dramatically change the GOP’s agenda in 2018.
A Jones win would put more pressure on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote GOP senator to try to reverse requirement that Pentagon remove Confederate names from bases No, ‘blue states’ do not bail out ‘red states’ MORE (R-Ky.) to work with Democrats. Most significantly, it could scuttle efforts to replace ObamaCare and reform entitlement programs — a top priority for Speaker Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanBush, Romney won’t support Trump reelection: NYT Twitter joins Democrats to boost mail-in voting — here’s why Lobbying world MORE (R-Wis.) in 2018.
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If the Senate Republican majority shrinks by one seat — giving them a razor thin 51-49 majority — it will give more leverage to GOP moderates such as Sens. Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsRepublicans prepare to punt on next COVID-19 relief bill Trump tweets spark fresh headache for Republicans Trump’s tweet on protester sparks GOP backlash MORE (Maine), Lisa MurkowskiLisa Ann MurkowskiMilley discussed resigning from post after Trump photo-op: report OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump administration seeks to use global aid for nuclear projects MORE (Alaska), John McCainJohn Sidney McCainThe Hill’s Campaign Report: Bad polling data is piling up for Trump Cindy McCain ‘disappointed’ McGrath used image of John McCain in ad attacking McConnell Report that Bush won’t support Trump reelection ‘completely made up,’ spokesman says MORE (Ariz.), Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeGOP lawmakers stick to Trump amid new criticism Kelly holds double-digit lead over McSally in Arizona: poll Trump asserts his power over Republicans MORE (Ariz.) and Bob CorkerRobert (Bob) Phillips CorkerGOP lawmakers stick to Trump amid new criticism Trump asserts his power over Republicans Romney is only GOP senator not on new White House coronavirus task force MORE (Tenn.).
But it will also empower maverick conservatives such as Sens. Ron JohnsonRonald (Ron) Harold JohnsonHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Republicans release newly declassified intelligence document on FBI source Steele Democrats demand Republican leaders examine election challenges after Georgia voting chaos MORE (R-Wis.) and Rand PaulRandal (Rand) Howard PaulRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants Louisville passes ‘Breonna’s Law’ banning no-knock warrants Rand Paul aide joins Trump campaign, RNC fundraising group MORE (R-Ky.), who have threatened at times this year to derail the GOP agenda to win concessions.
In other words, a Jones win will make McConnell’s job a lot harder if he sticks to his strategy of passing major bills with party-line Republican support.
Republicans had vowed to return to the health-care debate and legislation sponsored by Sens. Bill CassidyWilliam (Bill) Morgan CassidySenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote GOP senators dodge on treatment of White House protesters The Hill’s Morning Report – Presented by Facebook – US virus deaths exceed 100,000; Pelosi pulls FISA bill MORE (R-La.) and Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op MORE (R-S.C.) to largely replace ObamaCare with block grants to states.
However, a Jones win would likely snuff that plan out completely. Jones has come out against Republican plans to replace ObamaCare.
A Fox News poll released Monday showed Jones leading Republican candidate Roy Moore, who faces multiple allegations of sexual misconduct, by 10 points. Other polls have shown Moore ahead.
“It gives more leverage to your outlying members like Collins and Corker if you continue to run the Senate like you have so far, where everything is negotiated out of the public … put on the floor and pushed through,” said James Wallner, a former longtime Senate Republican aide.
“If the majority shrinks by one, you only need two people to defeat major legislation under reconciliation,” he added, referring to the budget process Republicans used to try to pass health-care reform with 51 votes this year.
Wallner said what he sees as the slim chances of repealing and replacing ObamaCare become even more unlikely.
He said if Republican voters let Jones win in Alabama, it will signal that conservatives are making their peace with the idea of not repealing ObamaCare, and “then you can have a negotiation with these Democrats and moderate Republicans” on how to reform health care.
Republican leaders such as Senate Majority Whip John CornynJohn CornynSenate headed for late night vote amid standoff over lands bill Koch-backed group launches ad campaign to support four vulnerable GOP senators Tim Scott to introduce GOP police reform bill next week MORE (R-Texas) said in September that if Republicans couldn’t muster 51 votes to repeal ObamaCare they would tackle health care on a bipartisan basis.
McConnell and President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE have already moved in that direction by promising Collins that they will enact legislation negotiated with Democratic Sen. Patty MurrayPatricia (Patty) Lynn MurrayA national testing strategy to safely reopen America Exclusive investigation on the coronavirus pandemic: Where was Congress? The coronavirus crisis has cut the child care sector MORE (Wash.) to shore up the individual health-care markets by the end of the year.
If the Republican majority shrinks by one, Collins “is really holding the cards there,” said Bill Hoagland, another former senior Senate GOP aide, referring to the health-care debate.
“If a red state, a Republican state, one that Trump won overwhelmingly, if that sends a Democrat to the Senate, I think that makes a big difference,” he added.
“It would highlight the importance of working with thoughtful conservatives such as the McCains and the Flakes,” said Sarah Chamberlain, the president and CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership, a group of 70 members of Congress who describe themselves as the “governing wing of the Republican Party.”
McCain helped kill the Senate health-care bill earlier this year, and Flake, a deficit hawk, almost pressured Republican leaders to shrink the size of the tax-cut package by $350 billion to $400 billion.
After the months of negotiation to repeal and replace ObamaCare with a simple majority vote in the Senate failed this summer, trying to do so again in an election year with a smaller GOP majority strikes many Republicans as a fool’s errand.
The GOP tax bill, which eked its way through the Senate this month with 51 votes, likely won’t be affected by a Jones win as leaders hope to have the legislation on Trump’s desk before the Alabama race is certified and the winner seated.
It has taken two to three weeks to certify and seat the winners of other recent special elections, such as Sens. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants Black lawmakers unveil bill to remove Confederate statues from Capitol Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk MORE (D-N.J.), Ed MarkeyEdward (Ed) John MarkeyEngel scrambles to fend off primary challenge from left Markey touts past praise from Kennedy: ‘He does an incredible job’ Progressive Caucus co-chair endorses Kennedy in Massachusetts Senate primary MORE (D-Mass.), Christopher CoonsChristopher (Chris) Andrew CoonsMnuchin indicates openness to more PPP loans in next COVID-19 relief bill Coronavirus Report: The Hill’s Steve Clemons interviews Michelle McMurry-Heath Republicans turning against new round of ,200 rebate checks MORE (D-Del.) and Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinTrump administration seeks to use global aid for nuclear projects Shelley Moore Capito wins Senate primary West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice wins GOP gubernatorial primary MORE (D-W.Va.).
Empowered moderates, who could see their leverage increase even more, say GOP leaders have already signaled that infrastructure investment, a more bipartisan project, is next on the 2018 agenda, ahead of health care.
Collins told reporters at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast this month that infrastructure is the next major order of business in the Senate.
There was talk among Republicans earlier this year about using reconciliation to unwind the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform law, but that has also given way to a more bipartisan approach.
The Senate Banking Committee last week voted to advance legislation to roll back federal regulations on small banks. Four Democrats — including three in tough races next year, Sens. Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyEx-Sen. Joe Donnelly endorses Biden Lobbying world 70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents MORE (Ind.), Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn Heitkamp70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents Susan Collins set to play pivotal role in impeachment drama Pro-trade group launches media buy as Trump and Democrats near deal on new NAFTA MORE (N.D.) and Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterSenate confirms Trump’s watchdog for coronavirus funds Montana barrels toward blockbuster Senate fight The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip MORE (Mont.) — voted for the measure.
In some ways, a Jones victory would come almost as a relief to Senate Republican leaders, who have come under enormous pressure from the president and House Republicans to keep their diverse caucus unified.
If Democrats win the Alabama seat, expectations will be lower and McConnell will have a good excuse to work with Democrats on infrastructure, immigration reform and even banking deregulation.
It would also spare Republicans from having to undergo an excruciating deliberation over whether to expel Moore, who has received Trump’s endorsement and has run expressly against the GOP establishment in Washington.
It would save them from the Democratic plan to use Moore to portray the Republican Party as out of touch with the concerns of women.
A new Gallup poll shows the percentage of Americans who self-identify as Republican has dropped from 42 percent to 37 percent, a decline driven by white women walking away from the party.
“Roy Moore will be the gift that keeps on giving for Democrats. It will define the 2018 election,” Graham told CNN in an interview Monday.
Hoagland said if Moore wins, “it would be as damaging to Republicans as if the Democrat wins.”
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