An unexpectedly one‑sided Six Nations Championship has made two things crystal clear. There can be no disputing that the runaway grand slam winners, Ireland, are the European side best placed to succeed at the Rugby World Cup next year. And the other inescapable conclusion? Unless England absorb the harsh lessons of their worst finish in 31 years, the chances of them prospering in Japan are on a par with Eddie Jones holidaying in Wales in the near future.
The gap in alertness and execution between green and white over the past two months has been almost painful to behold. Rory Best’s side were the most organised and intelligent of champions, precision engineered by the razor-sharp Joe Schmidt. England? Those English fans still clinging to the fast fading memories of 2016 and 2017 need to accept the opposition have not just caught up with Jones’s squad but, in several respects, overtaken them.
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Where to start? Despite Jonny May’s late try on Saturday, England amassed only 10 points more over the course of their five games than Italy, who did not have the luxury of facing themselves. Never before in the professional era have they had a leaner campaign; not even at their lowest ebb at the 2015 World Cup did they look so collectively wooden. Those still admiring the emperor’s new clothes would be better advised to ask how many previous World Cups have been won by the fifth-best side in Europe.
No wonder Sir Clive Woodward feels England are now “staring down the barrel” and “in a big hole” with a three-Test summer series looming against a South Africa team under purposeful new management and looking to recall a number of foreign-based stars. Jones is perfectly entitled to talk about “sticking to the process” and insist that “every champion team has a run like this” but it will be a difficult script to maintain should England go down 3-0 against the Springboks in June. “I think we’re moving forward, I know that’s hard to see,” Jones insisted on Saturday night. He must have an unbelievably powerful microscope.
If only the solution was simply about launching an urgent quest for fresh personnel. While the injured Billy Vunipola and Jack Nowell would both make a ball-carrying difference, Jones has already rotated his resources to little avail. His supposedly game-changing selections in the front and back rows failed to pay off on Saturday, dropping George Ford delivered no improvement in midfield fluency and England’s ability to finish strongly becomes irrelevant if they troop in 21-5 down at half-time.
All of which leaves Jones virtually back where he started two years ago. His players apparently recorded excellent GPS readings in training last week but no amount of gym prowess can mask the relative shortage of natural leaders, the steady deterioration in attacking fluency, the mushrooming penalty counts or the leaden body language.
Turning wine into water is not Jones’s normal party trick but he does now need to consider whether the full-on nature of his regime should be dialled back to reflect his players’ already heavy workloads. It cannot be a total coincidence that Ireland, Wales and Scotland, most of whose players operate in the Pro 14, fill the top three places in the final Six Nations table while the national teams of France and England buckle beneath the relentless demands of their respective domestic club leagues.
The good news for England’s weary infantry is that they should be sharper next season, having finally shaken off the lingering effects of last summer’s Lions tour. There is one snag: exactly the same will apply to Ireland and Wales, who both host England in the 2019 championship. Had it not been for a dodgy TMO decision and brilliant last-ditch cover tackle last month, Wales, too, might well have cracked Twickenham.
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Much can still change before the World Cup but, if Ireland’s half-back totems Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray stay fit, Sean O’Brien, Robbie Henshaw and Josh van der Flier make satisfying returns from injury and Jacob Stockdale and Garry Ringrose keep improving, even New Zealand will struggle to escape Dublin unscathed this November. England’s captain, Dylan Hartley, remains resolute – “Other teams are getting better and we’ve got to do the same” – but even he admitted to being struck by Ireland’s cool, calm and clinical demeanour.
At least England’s effort levels never wavered and Elliot Daly’s brace of tries further underlined his world-class value. But to see Tadgh Furlong deliver an inch-perfect pass to Bundee Akee to set up CJ Stander’s artfully constructed first-half score – Schmidt remembered a similar set play working against England in 2015 and dusted it down for the big occasion – was to glimpse a visiting team operating at a level above their opponents in terms of control and sophistication. When Stockdale broke the individual record for the most tries in a Six Nations season, assisted by Jones’s curious eve‑of‑game request for the in‑goal areas to be extended, it was in effect game over by half-time.
Ireland richly deserve their holy grail, only their third grand slam after 1948 and 2009, and their own winning run now stands at a record 12 Tests. England, for their part, have not lost three successive Six Nations games since 2006, a sequence which prefaced the dismissal of Andy Robinson as head coach that autumn. Jones remains secure in his post for now but, if any traditional rugby nation is currently flirting with “little shit country” status, it is arguably England.