Leicester have never failed to qualify for the Premiership play-offs since the current system was introduced in 2005-06, but defeat to Newcastle at Welford Road on Friday night would all but end that record.
The Falcons are fourth in the table, two points above Leicester, and their director of rugby, Dean Richards, spent his playing career at Welford Road and became the club’s director of rugby before being fired in the 2003-04 season.
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Then, as this campaign, Leicester lost four league matches in front of the Welford Road faithful, but if their supporters could pick an opponent for a must-win home game, Newcastle would be high on the list having only won once in the Premiership at Welford Road, back in its inaugural season in 1997, and having mustered only one victory in the last 15 league meetings between the sides.
“We are under no illusions, we know we have to win on Friday,” said the Leicester captain, Tom Youngs. “It will be a final every match for us for the rest of the season. We will have to win again at Sale in the final round and that would give us an away semi-final, probably in Exeter, and again we would have to deliver. We know what we have to do and we are confident in our ability.”
Leicester would have one foot in the play-offs had they not succumbed to a surprise home defeat to their East Midlands rivals Northampton in the last round, a run of five straight Premiership victories ended by a team whose only away success in the league and Europe this season had been at London Irish.
“It was a reality check for us,” said Youngs. “The end of that match was one of the worst feelings I have experienced in a Leicester shirt. There was no complacency, but we were off it mentally and if that happens in the Premiership, which is as tight and competitive as it has ever been, you will invariably lose.
“It was a tough few days afterwards. You are only as good as your last game and that is the one we have to look back on. You never want to lose, but sometimes it can spur you on. We have world-class players coming back in Ben [Youngs] and Manu Tuilagi and we know what it takes to win big matches. We have to be utterly clear in our approach to this game.”
The return of Richards, a Leicester icon, will add to the occasion. “He was an awesome player for the club and a great coach,” said Youngs. “He knows what it is all about and they will be well prepared. They are fourth for a reason, because they are a very good side who have done well away this season (six league wins out of 10). They deserve to be up there.”
Exeter have secured a home draw in the play-offs and Saracens will do so as well if they win at London Irish on Sunday, but it has been a season when every club has endured at least one stumble. Worcester have spent the campaign trying to finish above Irish, but they won at Leicester and Exeter.
“Sometimes the team that you think will win loses,” said Youngs. “That is sport and what makes it so compelling. If it was predictable, no one would watch. The Premiership is a tough, vibrant tournament with every club capable of winning on any given day. Perhaps it has cost us in Europe because no one can afford to rest players ahead of Champions Cup matches, but because strength is spread across the board in our league it makes it tighter. It becomes harder to play in every season.
“The Pro 14 is different and player talent is more concentrated. I have been very impressed with Leinster this season and when I saw them win at Exeter, I fancied them to go all the way in the Champions Cup. It should be some final against Racing 92 next month.”
Youngs intends to be preparing for a play-off semi-final by the time that match is played. “What we can take from the Northampton game is that we had plenty of chances at the beginning and did not take them,” he said. “The negatives from that day have made us better and even more determined.”