England will probably never encounter a Wallabies side surrounded by such low expectations. Not only have Saturday’s Twickenham visitors omitted the gifted Kurtley Beale and his old mate Adam Ashley-Cooper for breaching the team’s disciplinary code, but their key breakdown threat David Pocock has failed to recover from a neck injury. Michael Cheika has never had a blacker Friday as a head coach.
For his opposite number, Eddie Jones, however, kick-off can hardly arrive quickly enough. Should his team conclude their calendar year in emphatic fashion, the southern hemisphere will be left with much to ponder over their Christmas barbies.
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England still have 10 Tests left before they fly to Japan for next year’s World Cup while Cheika’s squad, after eight defeats in 12 internationals this year, have been battling a virus in London this week and are also scraping the Vegemite jar confidence-wise. A one-sided home win and a record sixth successive Cook Cup success would reinforce the northern hemisphere’s gathering momentum.
On paper it will also complete a decent autumn harvest for Jones and his players. Victories over South Africa and Japan, an encouraging one-point defeat to the All Blacks and Manu Tuilagi back fit? Had they been offered that scenario a month ago they would have taken it, even without several bonus dishes of shredded Wallabies.
So why the faint nagging sense that Jones’s squad still have a bit to prove, both to themselves and others? Partly it is because modern Test rugby never stands still: Ireland’s victory over New Zealand cast England’s gallant loss to the same opponents in a less flattering light while Japan’s first-half enterprise and tactical zip made the home side appear sluggish in thought and deed. Being occasional flat-track bullies is not going to win next year’s World Cup.
Could this be the day perceptions are spectacularly transformed? Jones certainly has the horsepower, from the returning bench duo of Tuilagi and Nathan Hughes to the powerful young wing Joe Cokanasiga, centre Ben Te’o and his second-row pairing of Courtney Lawes and Maro Itoje.
If the home team start as purposefully as against the All Blacks, there could even be a rerun of last year’s 30-6 success in this equivalent fixture.
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The trouble with England is that no one, themselves included, can say with absolute certainty when the muse will strike. The sure touch Ireland displayed in Dublin last week is not yet a constant England companion and, to date, this has not been the greatest month for several of their senior citizens. Dylan Hartley starts on the bench today, Danny Care – a thorn in the Wallabies flesh last year – is out of the squad entirely while Mike Brown remains unable to reclaim the No 15 jersey from Elliot Daly.
The outstanding November performers have probably been Owen Farrell, Sam Underhill, Maro Itoje, Mark Wilson and Ben Moon: think back to England’s improved second-halves against South Africa and Japan and their striking opening half hour against New Zealand, for example, and the estimable Moon has been on the field every time.
How much Jones would love it, therefore, if Daly can burst into devastating life at full-back, Tuilagi can add fresh dynamism to the midfield, Jamie George plays like a starting Test Lion and Underhill reprises his staggering effort against New Zealand at the expense of Michael Hooper. With a brace of Vunipolas, Ellis Genge, Joe Launchbury, George Kruis, Chris Robshaw, Dan Robson, Anthony Watson, Chris Ashton and Jack Nowell all presently unavailable through injury, it would not only reassure most English supporters that their 2018 wobble was only temporary but set the scene for a spectacular Six Nations championship next year.
What a tournament it could be, with almost every country on the up and no reason to hold anything back. Jones, though, will expect his players to ignore their opening championship fixture against Ireland in Dublin for now and focus entirely on a wounded Australia team he believes should not be underestimated. “This is going to be their best performance of the year,” Jones added. “This is the game they traditionally want to win, against the old foe, the mother country. It’s at Twickenham, it’s their last game of the year, it’s Will Genia’s 100th Test and they’ll be up for it. All previous form goes out the window.”
If anyone understands how the Australian psyche works it is Jones, who knows precisely what emotional buttons Cheika will have been pressing this week. “I used to tell the players they could do something special. They like nothing better than to beat England at Twickenham. They’ll see this as a chance to put everything right. They can go on to the beach and be kings of the southern hemisphere. History dictates that Australia-England is still a pretty special rugby match.”
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This time around, though, the strife-torn Wallabies really will have to dig in if their special indigenous jersey, being worn overseas for the first time, is to inspire much Twickenham dreamtime.
England will sniff opportunity at the lineout, look to get the ball into the hands of Jonny May and Cokanasiga early on and examine the Wallabies’ 10-12 combination of Matt Toomua and Bernard Foley. Physically, Jones will also be disappointed if his forwards do not make their presence felt. “Bully is not a good word these days. If I say ‘bully’ I’ll get called up before human resources but we’d certainly like to dominate them. It’s an important psychological area of the game.”
If mind games are never far away in the buildup to this fixture, neither coach can afford to ignore the latest warning from World Rugby that more cards should have been shown this autumn for high tackles and dangerous clear-outs. South Africa’s Jaco Peyper, as a result, is unlikely to be overly lenient should either side’s discipline start to fray. Australia lost a couple of players to the bin 12 months ago and can ill afford to do the same again if Genia, still a class act, is to enjoy his milestone Test.
Ultimately, though, the home side will regard this final series outing as a real chance to round off a mixed calendar year with a rattle. Their coaching panel of Jones, John Mitchell and Scott Wisemantel know their weakened opposition inside-out; what they now want to see is some old-fashioned Anglo-Saxon ruthlessness. If Jones’s England end 2018 strongly, they will feel anything is possible in 2019.