The season, domestically at least, ends this weekend. As it came in, so it goes out with players queuing for surgery. Artificial pitches have come under scrutiny after Jack Willis, John Barclay and Steffon Armitage suffered leg injuries in the last month that will keep them out of action for between six months and a year but other factors, such as fatigue, come into play.
It is not so much the number of matches players take part in but the cumulative effect of training. Mako Vunipola, who was with the Lions in New Zealand, will make his 32nd appearance of the campaign on Saturday when Saracens meet Exeter in the Premiership final.
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The Guinness Pro 14 final is also being held on Saturday. Leinster take on the Scarlets at the Aviva Stadium, a repeat of the European Champions Cup semi-final last month that was won comfortably by the Irish province. The Scarlets endured a burns night in Glasgow last Friday in the semi-final when a number of their players sustained friction injuries on the artificial surface and the champions will be underdogs, again. The four finalists had 11 players involved in the final Test against New Zealand last June, nine starters, and two more were involved in the first match in the series.
Saracens and Exeter are some distance ahead of the rest in the Premiership, both winning their semi-finals with comfort. Had not the Scarlets and Leinster been drawn in the same Pro 14 conference, finishing level on points, they would very probably both have topped their groups.
The leading four teams in the two leagues are involved on the final weekend, which is not always the case, as last year showed when Saracens lost at Exeter in the final minute in the semi-final. Leinster were forced to make changes for last weekend’s semi-final against Munster after a bruising European final when they landed a knock-out blow on Racing 92 in the closing minutes, but still had enough to squeeze through.
Exeter and Leinster are similar in style. Both have a remarkable capacity to take the ball through multiple phases without losing possession and rarely conceding a penalty. They are able to wear down sides; playing into the wind against Newcastle in the opening half last weekend the Chiefs at one point had 92% of possession but very rarely kicked.
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Leinster’s victory over the Scarlets last month was notable for the way they denied them any succour at the breakdown. They tended to double-team in contact, with Tadhg Beirne, Barclay and James Davies smashed out of the way. For all their skill behind, primed by Jonathan Sexton, it was a brutally sustained assault that left the Scarlets with no more possession than Newcastle had as they found themselves beached at Sandy Park.
The Scarlets will miss Barclay, whose five-year career in Wales ended a week early, and they have to find a way of thwarting the clear-out to allow Beirne and Davies to compete for possession. They will need to respond in kind physically, something Saracens have the muscle to do against Exeter.
There was a point in the season when Saracens wondered when they would win again, tumbling to defeat in the Premiership, Europe and the Anglo-Welsh Cup. A club that was a byword for success was in an unfamiliar position, confronting adversity as well as a mounting injury toll. It did not last long and in their last five Premiership matches they have averaged 53 points.
Twickenham will resound to the juddering impact of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. Exeter are unbeaten in their last four against Saracens, achieving the double this season after drawing at Allianz Park in January last year and then winning the play-off. There is a danger of the final becoming a stalemate, with neither side prepared to indulge in risk; but Saracens are hardened winners and, if anyone can force the Chiefs to exhaust their playbook, it is they.
The Scarlets are the odd ones out in the quartet with their preference to avoid contact but they will need to muscle up. Their strength lies in attacking unprepared defences off turnover possession, using their angles of running, off-loading, handling and pace to harvest chaos, but Leinster are a side that keep mistakes to a minimum; they kick more than Exeter and overwhelmingly won the battle of the skies in the semi-final.
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The Scarlets will need to find an alternative element of surprise on a day when champions will decide championships. Exeter and the Scarlets are defending their crowns, and Leinster won the Champions Cup this month, succeeding Saracens. It is not 11 months since the Lions drew the series with the All Blacks and this time next year players will be gearing up for the first of their World Cup training camps.
The Scarlets players who are in the Wales squad will have no time to celebrate victory or reflect on defeat because they have to be up at 5am on Sunday to fly to the United States for the Test against South Africa the following Saturday. Just as international windows are clearly defined, so should rest periods be when the calendar changes in 2020.
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