Gregor Townsend remembers only too well the last time Scotland began their Six Nations campaign against Italy. It was 19 years ago, Scotland were the title holders after Townsend had inspired them to the last ever Five Nations crown in 1999 – scoring a try in every match – and it was Italy’s first foray in the championship. Townsend and Scotland were promptly steamrollered in Rome.
It is a quirk of the fixture list that in all the ensuing championships, for all the times Scotland and Italy have duked it out to avoid the wooden spoon, they have not played each other on the opening weekend since.
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It may also explain why Scotland have won their opening match since five became six just twice but why, despite their injury list – 20 players are sidelined for the match against Italy on Saturday – there is optimism Townsend’s side can buck the trend.
There was similar positivity this time 12 months ago, after an autumn that culminated in a thumping victory over Australia, only for Wales to run riot in the 2018 curtain-raiser. “In that opening game in hindsight we maybe reflected too much on the positive things that happened in November and not enough on the hard work or accuracy we needed to beat any of the teams in the Six Nations,” says Townsend. “That game showed us the Six Nations is tougher than the November Tests and the quality of opposition we are facing is very high. When you see the world rankings we are facing some of the best teams in the world in this Six Nations.”
As the captain Greig Laidlaw points out “Italy always believe they can beat us”, but the improvements made under Townsend, and the fact that the Azzurri have not won a Six Nations match in 17 attempts, suggests a winning start for Scotland at Murrayfield on Saturday.
“The first game is never easy, it doesn’t matter who you play,” says Laidlaw. “You’ve got to get that first game under your belt, it’s all about winning. Italy always believe they can beat us. The players understand that and we’ll reiterate that. The ultimate goal of this team is to win our first game this year and then we start building on the top of that.”
Even before such a wealth of injuries struck, Scotland were dark horses at best in a Six Nations that features three of the top-four ranked teams in the world in Ireland, Wales and England.
Two of those teams have coaches who are taking part in their last Six Nations – and that could become three depending on Eddie Jones’s post-World Cup movements – so Scotland have stayed under the radar somewhat this year. That may be to ignore the strides they took in dispatching England and France at Murrayfield last year but, as was a running theme throughout, their difficulties in taking their home form on the road will count against them. Indeed, they finished last year’s championship by dodging a sizeable bullet in Rome, squeezing home 29-27 thanks to Laidlaw’s late penalty.
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“They should have beaten us,” reflects Townsend. “We’re very proud of how we came back and won that but they’ll see that as a game they can win. Italy have become more and more competitive and I have seen a big improvement in the last two years when their Pro14 teams have improved. That has translated into better international performances. We beat them narrowly last year and they will look at us as a big opportunity at the start of the tournament.
“The expectations will be high throughout Scotland, more and more people are coming to watch us play at Murrayfield, but we realise it’s a very tough game to start with and where we felt we haven’t played as well, or close to potential, is when we’ve gone in as favourites.”
Scotland’s hopes are boosted by the fact that their second match is at home – albeit against Ireland – and by Townsend’s optimism that as many as seven injured players will return after the first block of two matches.
“To get a home game is a good start to the tournament, there is no travel and you do things in your own training environment and that makes it better,” he says. “That was the start we were looking for, whether it is Italy or Ireland. We know the challenge we face as we all have a small window to prepare for the first game.”
Townsend is, however, at the mercy of the Premiership and Top 14 clubs to a large extent. There are seven members of his squad based in England and a further two in France, including Laidlaw and his influential fly-half Finn Russell. There is nothing to stop their clubs selecting these players during the two rest weeks and while Russell was rested by Racing 92 over the weekend, Laidlaw was in action for Clermont just seven days before Scotland host Italy. “Racing have communicated with us really well, they want [Finn] to play well for them, for us and later in the season,” adds Townsend. “The best thing for that is for him not to play all the time.
“In an ideal world we’d have most players playing in Scotland, but we only have two teams and players have to take opportunities and opportunities to play in some of the best clubs in Europe.”