Even a few years ago the notion that the Six Nations might be harder to win than a World Cup would have been ridiculous. Suddenly that is how it feels: whoever lifts the Webb Ellis Cup in Japan in November will not have met more highly-ranked opponents in more hostile surroundings than they will encounter on the cold playing fields of Europe in the next two months.
Take Ireland, the defending champions and the second highest ranked team in the world. Their RWC pool contains four other teams ranked 7th, 11th, 16th and 19th respectively, and they could conceivably reach the final in Yokohama without facing opponents ranked higher than fifth. Contrast that with their more immediate task: five successive hardcore challenges, four against tough, improving teams ranked among the world’s top 10.
Six Nations predictions: Wales v Ireland looks a likely title decider
It explains why expectations are so high for a tournament that, New Zealand apart, now has a higher percentage of the planet’s leading players than it ever has. In the fast-changing world of rugby nothing stays the same indefinitely but, for now, Europe holds the balance of oval-ball global power. Whoever wins the Six Nations will be laying down a serious marker for 2019’s other high-profile rugby tournament.
Predicting who that may be with absolute confidence is as hazardous as it has ever been. In this giant-sized version of Cluedo, the only sure thing is the murder weapon: the lead piping is everyone’s go-to implement in the modern game. Whether or not a green, white, blue or red hand will apply the fatal blow – and precisely where the coup de grâce will be delivered – will keep us all guessing right up until the final round of games on 16 March.
Even Ireland cannot rely on their outstanding 2018 form to give them much of a head start. No one has ever won back-to-back Six Nations grand slams. France were the last country to do so in 1997-98 when the tournament was still a five-team affair. Winning the title in consecutive seasons is also rare: it has happened only five times since 1999. Partly it is the alternate home and away rhythms of the championship, partly everyone else’s passionate desire to make amends for the previous year. Mix all this together and no team ever win the Six Nations by accident.
History exerts its subtle pressures too. Did you know England have never won an outright title in a year ending with a nine since the world’s oldest rugby tournament began in the 1880s? The nearest they have come was in 1939 when, despite two of their three games being at Twickenham, the championship ended in a three-way tie.
Eddie Jones’ forced to shuffle an England pack in need of cohesion
To improve that sickly sequence Eddie Jones’s side have little option but to win either in Dublin on Saturday or in Cardiff on 23 February. Neither scenario is out of the question but the feeling persists that, for assorted reasons, England are still six months behind where they would like to be. They may yet peak at the World Cup, as Jones keeps insisting they will, and this Six Nations may just have arrived a fraction too soon.
Yes, England possess a smattering of World XV contenders but they have only really clicked for spells here and there. Is the real England the one who almost beat New Zealand in November or the one made to look mortal by Japan? Last season they were outwitted in Edinburgh and Paris and trailed in fifth. They will finish higher this time but, unless Owen Farrell, Maro Itoje and Billy Vunipola can jolt Ireland out of their confident stride the title may prove elusive.
The opening weekend will do much to shape the fortunes of all concerned. Wales’s teamsheet for Paris may be missing Taulupe Faletau but it still contains more than enough talent, drive and experience to make a big impact. How Warren Gatland would love to send Jones’s England home from Cardiff empty-handed, not least to remind Twickenham’s top brass of his credentials as and when his opposite number departs.
France, for their part, finally have a joined-up half-back combination, the great Wesley Fofana is back for a final Six Nations fling and losing at home to Fiji in November has given everyone a kick up the derriere. If it is hard to see them as title contenders just yet, their progress will be of particular interest to England, with whom they will share a World Cup pool. Keep an eye out for Demba Bamba, a precocious young tighthead with the size and nifty footwork to make a lively impression.
Brutality, home wins and drop goals: what to expect from the Six Nations
Gregor Townsend’s Scotland will also be seeking to take the game to all and sundry; any backline containing Finn Russell and Stuart Hogg are always going to be worth watching. The question is whether, minus the injured John Barclay and Hamish Watson, the Scots can be as effective around the all-important breakdown as they have been on their best days. It is not hard to see them causing their three visitors to Murrayfield problems; their performances on the road will determine whether they finish in the top half.
Italy will be as spirited as ever but standards across Europe continue to rise. Which brings us back to Ireland, such worthy winners last year and highly unlikely to suffer a vertiginous fall from grace. It could well boil down to a final-day showdown in Cardiff but Joe Schmidt’s team increasingly relish the biggest occasions. Ireland with the lead piping in the Principality Stadium remains 2019’s likeliest conclusion.