Losing has become a bad habit for the Wallabies.
The Wallabies’ try-less 9-6 loss to Wales in Cardiff was their eighth defeat from 11 Tests this year, ingraining the feeling that losing is now a matter of course for the Australian side.
A pattern of negative behaviour has resulted in self-doubt, high anxiety and a lack of composure destroying the Wallabies.
Wales employed an old-fashioned territory game-plan to end their 13-Test losing streak against the Wallabies – and gain a potential psychological advantage against the Wallabies for the pool stage of next year’s World Cup in Japan by getting a monkey the size of King Kong off their back.
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As they did in their win against Scotland the previous week, the Welsh kicked in-field and relied on their defence to slow down and ultimately stop the Australian attack.
There was nothing spectacular about what Wales did. Their aim was to accumulate points through penalty goals, a tactic which looked as if it might backfire with fullback Leigh Halfpenny having an uncharacteristically off day with the boot.
But it was enough to eke out a narrow victory.
By contrast, the Wallabies were more enterprising. They varied their attack from the set-pieces, at times using powerful centre Samu Kerevi to get across the advantage line, but also executing some of their trademark rehearsed moves.
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Australia seemed to make a conscious effort to be more patient with the ball. And playmaker Kurtley Beale used stab kicks to get in behind Wales’s rush defence, a sound enough tactic.
But it all came to nothing.
In the end it was not so much what the Wallabies did or do not do, but how they did it that brought about their undoing.
In the lead up to the Test there was a lot of critical analysis of the Wallabies’ poor performing lineout. Rather than trying to improve the lineout by selecting more lineout jumpers, the Wallabies tried to avoid the set-piece by not kicking for touch.
Keeping the ball in play resulted in more scrums. So what happened? The Wallabies’ scrum became a liability. They conceded three scrum penalties within the first 28 minutes, two for collapsing and one for wheeling.
If it is not one thing with the Wallabies, it is another. They Wallabies their scrum problems when their reserve front-row entered the game in the second half, but by this time the lineout was falling apart.
With the score locked at 3-all at halftime, the Wallabies twice passed up opportunities in the second half to break the deadlock with a penalty goal to go for an attacking five metre lineout, and both times they lost possession.
Firstly, hooker Talu Latu knocked it on while the Wallabies were rolling a maul and then he threw the ball over the back of the lineout.
It was not just set-piece errors, but rather the accumulative effect of a host of silly mistakes that eroded the Wallabies from within.
Midway through the first half the Wallabies patiently built up 16 phases only for second-rower Adam Coleman to knock on just 10 metres from the line after taking his eye off the ball to have a peek at the on-rushing defence.
About 10 minutes later Coleman hit Welsh number eight Ross Moriarty with a full-blooded tackle, but Latu was penalised for entering the ensuing ruck from the side, negating the effort.
Even Wallabies captain Michael Hooper dropped the ball cold in the 57th minute with no defensive pressure on him.
Carrying out the Wallabies’ tactic of kicking downfield, replacement five-eighth Matt Toomua booted the ball dead in the 69th minute, giving Wales a scrum 40 metres from the Wallabies’ line.
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In isolation all of these errors are relatively minor, but when they continually occur, they undermine both the confidence and capability of the team. The key question is why are they occurring so often? Is it stress?
The bad habits that have crept into the Wallabies’ game have become a deep-rooted problem that will be difficult to fix. Recognising the causes of their bad habits will be crucial to overcoming them, but the Wallabies do not have long to figure it out.
The Wallabies will be expected to achieve a rare victory when they play Italy in Rome on Sunday morning (Australian time). While they have never lost to the Azzurri, the way they are going, the Wallabies cannot afford to take them for granted.
And then Eddie Jones and England will be lying in wait at Twickenham for the Wallabies’ last Test before they enter the World Cup year.
The Wallabies have to start changing their habits and then winning just might become a habit again.