Michael Cheika has always been a gypsy. That is why it was not surprising to see him flag his intention to resign as Wallabies coach if Australia does not win the 2019 World Cup in Japan.
“The way I see it is like this – we came second in the last one and you have got to improve,” Cheika told News Corp on Wednesday. “So there is only winning the World Cup, otherwise it is probably somebody else’s opportunity to do it.”
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Cheika’s revelation was in keeping with his career to date. He has never stayed in one place for too long. For the most part, it has been a case of achieve and leave.
Even as a player Cheika had wanderlust, leaving his beloved Randwick to play for no less than three European teams – Castres, Club Athletique des Sports Generaux (later merged with Stade Francais) and Livorno – between 1989 and 1994.
As a coach Cheika has tended to move on fairly quickly after achieving success. Significantly, Cheika remained with Irish province Leinster and the NSW Waratahs for only one more year after guiding the two teams their maiden Heineken Cup and Super Rugby titles respectively.
Cheika reminds of the Donovan song There is a Mountain with the refrain, “first there is a mountain, then there is no mountain, then there is.” For Cheika there is always another mountain to climb, which is why I suspect he will quit as Wallabies coach whether Australia wins the World Cup or not.
If the Wallabies succeeded in Tokyo, Cheika could attempt to become the first coach to win two World Cups, but he would not necessarily need to do that with Australia. Cheika has a close association with Argentine rugby and has long been touted as a future coach of the Pumas. Guiding Argentina to World Cup success would be climbing a mountain of Andean heights.
It is now not so much a question of whether Cheika will continue to coach the Wallabies after 2019, but who will succeed him. Wallabies attack coach Stephen Larkham has already stated his ambition to coach Australia after the 2019 World Cup, which is another clue that Cheika will depart irrespective of the result.
If the Wallabies won the World Cup or even reached the final, Larkham would be in a good position to replace Cheika. He is one of Australia’s favourite sons and did a good job with the Brumbies.
But any succession plan to install Larkham as Wallabies head coach after 2019 could be scuppered if Australia perform below expectations at the World Cup. A couple of years ago it appeared Larkham would not have any real competition for the Wallabies job if Rugby Australia did not look off-shore. But Larkham now has a very formidable potential rival in highly-regarded Melbourne Rebels head coach Dave Wessels, arguably the best of a new generation of Super Rugby coaches in Australia.
The South African born Wessels received a lot of kudos for his work with the Western Force last year, keeping the team focused while Rugby Australia’s axe hung over their heads. And when the axe finally fell on the Force, Wessels managed to attract most of the team’s best players, including second-rower Adam Coleman and outside back Dane Haylett-Petty, to Melbourne. The Force players were clearly loyal to him.
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Importantly, Wessels has a particularly close relationship with Coleman, who is a potential Wallabies captain now he is leading the Rebels. If Wessels can mould the Rebels into a competitive team, he would be a strong candidate for the Wallabies job post-2019, assuming he wanted it.
The two major obstacles in front of Wessels would be his relative inexperience and the fact he is a foreigner. If the Wallabies job became vacant now, Wessels may be seen as too green, but with another two years of Super Rugby experience under his belt, he would certainly be well primed for the next level.
And unlike the Wallabies’ first and only foreign coach Robbie Deans, who had spectacular success with the Crusaders before coming to Australia, Wessels has made his name as a coach in this country.
Two years is a long time in rugby. Who knows? The Wallabies might win the World Cup and Cheika stay, but I’m guessing the race is already on to succeed him.