Scotland start the final day of the Six Nations in a familiar position, one place off the bottom of the table, but victory in Rome, where Italy have not won in the championship since 2013, could see them rise to third and finish in the top half for the first time since 2006.
Gregor Townsend’s team are turning Murrayfield into a ground where away victories have ceased to be routine. They have defeated all the other championship sides at home in the past two seasons and passed 50 points against Australia in November having been within a few metres of having a conversion to beat New Zealand for the first time.
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On the road, they have misplaced their travel sickness pills. Other than Rome, where they have won on their last two visits, they have to go back to 2010 for the previous success away. While there was little for them to take out of the 27-point reverse in Cardiff on the opening weekend, the 28-8 defeat to Ireland in Dublin last Saturday was a tale of wasted opportunities.
“Rugby players talk a lot about fine margins,” said the Scotland captain, John Barclay. “If we had been more accurate in our finishing, who knows what would have happened after that. The title has gone but we still have a huge amount to play for. We have a chance, if everything goes our way, of finishing third, and we have only achieved that twice before. Winning well in Rome is a must.”
They have a mathematical chance of sneaking into second place, although that would require Wales and France to draw without either securing a bonus point after Scotland have beaten Italy by at least 65 points. Given that their highest points total in Rome is 36, they are playing for third and that effectively requires Ireland to secure the grand slam at Twickenham.
“The difference in the games we have won and lost in this championship has come down to a fine margin, accuracy,” Barclay said. “Not letting teams off the hook when you’ve cut them open. Ireland are ahead of us, particularly in the way they win tight games, but we are improving fast. If we play our own game accurately, the best teams in the world will struggle to beat us.”
Italy cannot be billed as one of those. Conor O’Shea ends his second year in charge of the Azzurri searching not only for a first Six Nations victory but also a first point. They have scored nine tries but conceded 23 and their captain, Sergio Parisse, soldiers on. The No 8 will equal Brian O’Driscoll’s Six Nations appearance record of 65 but he would trade the landmark for a win.
“We do not play to lose or just to be competitive,” said Parisse, who is part of a back row that includes the Gloucester flanker Jake Polledri, who is winning his first cap. Parisse is one defeat away from 100 international losses, a record that would not square with his significant contribution to the Test game, but with Scotland no longer wooden spoon rivals, it is unlikely to be delayed.