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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen faces a potentially messy reshuffle in the middle of a pandemic after Phil Hogan quit on Wednesday night as her powerful trade chief.
Hogan’s position became increasingly untenable amid a political scandal that centered on his attendance last week at a golfing society dinner that flouted Ireland’s coronavirus restrictions.
Over the past days, his initial reluctance to apologize, his repeated buck-passing and vacillations over the full version of events turned him into a pariah in Ireland, and heaped pressure on von der Leyen to take action.
Ultimately, he stressed that he was not fired, but was stepping aside to prevent the scandal from becoming a “distraction” to the Commission’s work.
“I resigned myself,” he told Irish broadcaster RTÉ. “Nobody has to tell me … what is the right thing to do.”
Hogan’s departure is a headache for von der Leyen, who loses one of the most experienced and influential commissioners, whom she had entrusted with the sensitive job of resolving the trade war with U.S. President Donald Trump and negotiating an investment deal with China. In his previous stint as agriculture commissioner, he had proved to be a highly effective negotiator in landing landmark trade deals with Japan and the South American Mercosur bloc.
Her first task now is to find a new commissioner with the caliber to fill the trade job, one of the EU’s portfolios with wide exclusive powers. Officials and politicians said much will depend on who Dublin nominates as Hogan’s successor. The Irishman was a trade liberal, and much of the focus in Brussels now will center on whether the job could take a more defensive tack, in line with French visions of a Europe that plays a more active role protecting its own industries from international rivals.
Making Brussels accountable
The resignation came as a surprise to many Brussels veterans, who were used to viewing Commission officials as shielded from the sort of public scrutiny and accountability that their counterparts in national governments face. A series of controversies around German Commissioner Günther Oettinger in the last Commission, for example, did not dislodge him from his post.
That immunity was seen as symptomatic of the EU’s democratic deficit, where officials in Brussels escape the full onslaught of national media and electorates.
There were signs von der Leyen, who has vowed to make the EU more accountable, may have felt pressure to prove there were no double standards for the EU’s elite. Indeed, in a phrase that with hindsight looks highly ominous for Hogan, von der Leyen’s spokesperson Dana Spinant had told reporters on Monday that the Commission president “does expect commissioners to comply with the same rules as citizens do.”
One senior Berlaymont official said that in accepting or asking for the Irish commissioner’s resignation, von der Leyen was probably motivated by three factors: That Hogan was not forthcoming to her on the full details of his travels; that the Commission must set an example on rules for combating the epidemic; and the increasing political pressure on Brussels to demonstrate that EU officials are accountable, just like national officials and politicians.
Ultimately, the personal trust factor became very important, people close to her said, suggesting she lost faith in her trade chief after he repeatedly left her in the dark on his actions in Ireland, even after she publicly asked him to come clean. While Hogan insists that he resigned, he also let slip in his RTÉ interview that he had spent Wednesday engaged in long talks with von der Leyen to find an endgame that was in their mutual interest.
Not many people in the Commission are rubbing their hands with glee at Hogan’s departure, however, given that he was “respected and well-liked,” the official said. Sabine Weyand, the top civil servant responsible for trade, lamented a “sad day.”
Similarly, Irish government officials said what made Hogan’s position untenable was his failure to come clean on what Micheál Martin, the prime minister, described earlier Wednesday as Hogan’s “changing narrative” — and mounting evidence that Hogan was not truthful when he claimed to have “self-isolated” upon his return to Ireland.
Indeed, Martin and his deputy prime minister, Leo Varadkar, issued a joint statement saying they believed Hogan’s resignation was “the correct course of action given the circumstances of the past week,” and added: “We all have a responsibility to support and adhere to public health guidelines and regulations.”
Reshuffle looming
The immediate problem for von der Leyen is that she will most likely have to reshuffle her team of commissioners to fill the vacant post with an experienced politician. That means it is likely that Ireland will lose the trade portfolio unless it can provide a nominee of Hogan’s stature in the trade realm.
“The important thing now is to appoint a good trade commissioner. Nationality does not play the most important role here,” said Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s trade committee.
However, Lange said there was an outside chance that Ireland could retain the trade portfolio if it nominated a veteran like David O’Sullivan, the EU’s former ambassador to Washington. “It is more likely that Ireland will retain the trading portfolio if it nominates O’Sullivan, as he is a trading expert,” Lange said.
Another name cited by EU officials is Simon Coveney, currently Ireland’s defense minister. His nomination could trigger a broader reshuffle with the trade portfolio going to a commissioner from another country, such as Latvia’s Valdis Dombrovskis, two officials said.
Still, the reshuffle does not catch von der Leyen entirely off-guard, as she had already been forced to think about filling the post back in May and June, when Hogan announced he was considering leaving the Commission for the top job at the World Trade Organization. That episode may also have undermined her trust in Hogan, one trade diplomat speculated.
As for Hogan himself, he told RTÉ that today is likely to mark the end of his political career.
“His decision today must have been very difficult for him personally. It’s sad that great career should end in this way,” Varadkar said.
Lili Bayer and Hans von der Burchard contributed reporting.
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