EU diplomats fear escalation in Syria more than refugee surge

The big worry in Brussels is an open conflict between Turkey and Russia.

Brussels is more worried about further escalation in Syria than a new refugee crisis, EU diplomats say.

Hundreds of asylum seekers made their way to Turkey’s borders with Greece and Bulgaria on Friday after Turkish officials signaled they would no longer stop migrants from entering Europe — a move some diplomats interpreted as an attempt to pressure Europeans into supporting Ankara’s military operation in northern Syria.

Five years after the 2015 refugee crisis, the EU is scarcely better prepared for a surge in arrivals. The bloc still hasn’t figured out a redistribution system for asylum seekers, and the reception system on Greece’s islands has stranded some 40,000 migrants in overcrowded camps.

Yet EU diplomats insisted on Friday that what really worries them is not another major increase in migrants crossing the Aegean, but the possibility of NATO member Turkey coming into open conflict with Russia in Syria.

Turkey has sent thousands of troops to Syria’s Idlib province, which is held by Ankara-backed rebel groups, in an effort to deter an advance by Syrian government forces. On Thursday, 33 Turkish soldiers died in airstrikes, raising tensions between Ankara and Russia, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s main supporter.

Neither Turkey nor Russia appears to be seeking open conflict. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin agreed on Friday to arrange a meeting in the near future. But EU diplomats fear that an accident could be all it takes for a major escalation.

“I’m very, very worried” about the possibility of an accident involving Russian and Turkish forces, said a senior diplomat who focuses on security and defense issues. Another diplomat concurred: “When political tensions are high, incidents happen.”

The possibility of a surge in migrant arrivals remains a concern for many EU countries, in particular frontline states like Greece. But, although the EU still has many migration policy issues to resolve, the situation has changed since 2015.

It’s no longer easy for migrants to leave Greece’s islands after they arrive, and the so-called Balkan route, which enabled hundreds of thousands to pass from Greece into Central Europe within days in 2015, has been largely closed off. Turkey has also not reopened its own border with Syria or eased travel restrictions on Syrian refugees living in Turkey.

Some in Brussels did raise concerns over the situation on Greece’s islands. Another influx “would put more pressure on the Greek islands, with political costs that I cannot think of,” one EU official, who works on migration, said.

Greece on Friday stepped up border security and fired tear gas at a group of migrants that had gathered on the Turkish side of the land border.

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“Significant numbers of migrants and refugees have gathered in large groups at the Greek-Turkish land border and have attempted to enter the country illegally,” tweeted Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. “I want to be clear: no illegal entries into Greece will be tolerated. We are increasing our border security.”

Diplomats also noted that this was not the first time Ankara had threatened to flood Europe with refugees — although previous threats were not followed by migrants making their way to the borders. Turkish broadcasters on Friday aired pictures of asylum seekers rushing to buses headed for Greece and migrant boats departing Turkish shores.

While some diplomats speculated that Turkey’s move was aimed at getting European support for its operation in Idlib, given the timing, others wondered whether it was designed to push EU countries to spend more money on helping the 3.5 million Syrians living in Turkey.

The EU in 2016 pledged €6 billion to aid Syrian refugees in Turkey as part of its migration deal with Ankara, but that amount has “already been fully mobilized,” as a European Commission spokesperson put it on Friday.

Under the 2016 deal, Turkey pledged to work to block migrants from crossing into Europe. The Commission insisted on Friday that the agreement remains intact despite reports of Turkish border guards allowing migrants to pass, saying it expected Ankara to “uphold its commitments” stemming from the deal.

Nektaria Stamouli contributed reporting.