For some European politicians, the runway to a campaign for European Commission president is clear. Others might need a bit of help from a fairy godmother.
The mix of qualities and qualifications needed to become a viable candidate for the EU’s top job is far more complex than in a national election. Support on the European Council, especially from the most influential leaders like German Chancellor Angela Merkel, is politically and legally essential.
But many more stars in the EU firmament must also align. Prior experience in leadership, party affiliation, language ability, age, and geographic balance with other top EU posts are all critical factors. As is support from home.
Here’s a look at some prospects who, for the proponents of the European project, just might be the perfect fit to lead the Commission, but who may need — for political, personal or practical reasons tied to the EU’s complex nominating and election system — some powerful pixie dust to overcome long odds. The obstacles they face illustrate how even being qualified, charismatic and capable is not necessarily enough.
Alexander Stubb
Stubb, a former prime minister of Finland, is more likely to be found sporting cross-trainers than glass slippers. But for some fans he is the closest the EU might get to a euro-integrationist Prince Charming. Stubb is a triathlete, who completed the 2016 Ironman World Championships in Hawaii in 11 hours, 13 minutes and 45 seconds and then wrote about it for the Financial Times.
But while Stubb may have the perfect pedigree — he is now a vice president of European Investment Bank, and previously served as finance minister, trade minister, Europe minister and foreign minister, as well as a member of the Finnish Parliament and of the European Parliament — so does his friend and predecessor as prime minister, current Commission Vice President Jyrki Katainen.
Katainen and Stubb are both members of the National Coalition Party, which is part of the dominant, center-right European People’s Party family — and only one can be the nominee. And while Stubb is both ambitious and a passionate advocate for the EU, it is widely understood that he would not mount a campaign unless Katainen first makes clear that he doesn’t want to run.
For federalists who believe the EU urgently needs to do more self-promotion, Stubb is an ideal, musclebound poster-boy. He speaks five languages including, crucially, German. He has degrees from the College of Europe, the Sorbonne, the London School of Economics and even Furman University in South Carolina. He has written numerous books and has an active social media and internet presence.
Dalia Grybauskaitė
Grybauskaitė, now in her ninth year as president of Lithuania, is sometimes called the Iron Lady, and for those who view the EU as a beacon of democracy and freedom (and a counterweight to Russian revanchism), she embodies the Baltics’ passionate pursuit of Western liberalism since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
She also doesn’t mince words. Asked about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reelection victory, Grybauskaitė noted the nerve agent attack in the U.K. on “European soil” and said she would not congratulate him. “There is no space at all for baroque diplomacy,” she told reporters in English at the March European Council summit. Repeating the point later on Twitter, she added: “Speak your mind.”
Grybauskaitė is a lifelong public servant and former European commissioner, and the first Lithuanian president to be reelected to consecutive terms. As one of the most outspoken leaders of the EU, she is unafraid to confront or criticize, especially when it comes to strongmen like Putin or former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. Grybauskaitė can be quick with a great quote, or a snappy tweet, including one in February where she needled supporters of the Spitzenkandidat process, one of the obstacles standing in her way of becoming Commission president.
Grybauskaitė also has a black belt in karate. But what she doesn’t have is a political party, which is a problem given that the European Parliament has declared it will only vote for a new Commission president who has been nominated by one of the major political families. For this reason, Grybauskaitė is seen as a more likely contender to succeed Donald Tusk as president of the European Council, which directly chooses its own leader. That job will also become vacant in 2019, conveniently just as Grybauskaitė’s five-year term as president is coming to a close.
Margrethe Vestager
Vestager, the European commissioner for competition who has gained fame and notoriety for taking on tech giants including Apple and Google, has one of the highest profiles at the Berlaymont — and is seen by many as a hero for demanding that the digital behemoths obey the laws and pay their fair share of taxes. Like Stubb, Vestager is considered part of a new wave of European leaders, Gen Xers, who seem ready to take the helm and could offer fresh perspective in Brussels.
But while Vestager has been teasingly called a technophobe, she is a savvy user of new technologies (unlike current Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker who still uses a flip phone), and also smartly careful about safeguarding her digital footprint. In other words, she has a good sense of what’s on the minds of Netflix-watching voters.
And yet, while Vestager may show there is such a thing as pro-EU populism, her chances of winning the top job are slim. A Dane, the competition commissioner is a member and former leader of the Social Liberal Party, part of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), which has made gains in many recent national elections but still controls a relatively small number of seats in the European Parliament. And in next year’s balloting, the Liberals are still not expected to win enough to catapult their Spitzenkandidat to victory.
An alliance with French President Emmanuel Macron could change that, and at one point Macron was said to favor Vestager for the Commission presidency. While Vestager has said she would like to stay on in Brussels and has even reacted favorably to speculation about her as a Spitzekandidat, her own prime minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, has said he does not even want to reappoint her for another term as commissioner. And while technically not impossible, it is difficult to win the nomination for such a major post without strong support at home.
Also, Vestager has never served as prime minister, which is increasingly seen as a prerequisite for holding one of the two major EU presidencies.