Theresa May has agreed to step down as prime minister before the next election and said she would resign sooner if MPs backed her withdrawal agreement. This has prompted cabinet members to begin jockeying for position to replace her. But the race will not start for real until May formally quits, and she is keeping everyone guessing on when that will be.
The next few weeks and months present a number of hurdles where she could finally fall or pull up.
2 May 2019
Local elections on 2 May provide the most imminent opportunity for voters to take out their frustrations (Brexit or otherwise) on the government. A bad result could force May to resign. Even if the Conservatives do unexpectedly well, this could tempt May to resign “on a high”. She has also been under pressure from some of her cabinet colleagues to set out a timeline for her departure after the local elections.
23 May 2019
If, as seems likely, the UK is forced to hold elections for the European parliament these will take place on 23 May. They present another chance for voters to give the government a kicking the prime minister could find difficult to survive.
30 June 2019
This is the date May appeared to set herself for possible departure. At prime ministers questions on 20 February she said: “As prime minister, I am not prepared to delay Brexit any further than 30 June.” She has asked the EU for an extension to article 50 until 30 June, although EU leaders look set to reject this in favour of a much longer extension.
29 September 2019
The Conservative party annual conference is due to take place in Manchester from 29 September to 2 October. May is under pressure to stand down well before this to stop the conference becoming focused again on her leadership. She could stand down as party leader weeks before the conference and stay on as a caretaker prime minister until then. This would allow time for MPs to select their choice of two candidates before a ballot of members and an announcement of the winner at the conference.
12 December 2019
Last December May survived a no-confidence vote, despite 117 of her MPs voting against her. Under Tory party rules another such vote cannot take for the next 12 months. Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers, is resisting pressure from some disgruntled Brexiter MPs to bend the rules by holding another vote before December 2019.
5 May 2022
Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, the next general election must be held on the first Thursday in May 2022. The prime minister has promised to stand down before the next election. But then again she also promised not to hold a snap election in 2017.