Kick to back three – if you can contest
Steve Hansen’s team selection gives us an idea of where New Zealand’s mindset is. I know they have been wanting to field two playmakers for a while and with Damian McKenzie at full-back it takes a bit of the load off Beauden Barrett. McKenzie is another kicking option too but his first instinct is to run. With Rieko Ioane and Ben Smith also in the back three it means Ben Youngs simply has to be on the money with his box-kicking because this is an All Blacks team set up to keep the ball in hand. England have two options to try and counteract that threat: the first is that Youngs’ kicks have to be contestable. If you give McKenzie, Smith and Ioane even five metres they will rip England apart. Owen Farrell will have to kick accurately too but if he and Youngs get it right, England’s back three can cause New Zealand problems in the air.
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Target the All Black lineout
The second option for England is to kick the ball off the field – kick it into row Z and back the lineout to cause New Zealand problems. It’s an area where the All Blacks have shown a little bit of frailty and in Steve Borthwick (the England forwards coach) and George Kruis you have two of the biggest lineout geeks around. It might not be pretty but the more you keep the ball off the field, the less of a threat the back-runners of New Zealand become. The middle ground around the halfway line is going to be so crucial and if England can eke out penalties – they couldn’t against South Africa – but with a bit more deception in the air, they have Elliot Daly who can bang them over. The maul didn’t go their way last week but England traditionally have a strong set piece and I expect that to be the case again on Saturday.
Frustrate, frustrate, frustrate for the full 80
The All Blacks coaches will be preaching patience because it would play straight into England’s hands if they look to run away with the match in the first 20 minutes. We have seen New Zealand reach the 55-60-minute mark and up the tempo and intensity so often but England will try and frustrate them throughout and will be hoping to still be within a score when TJ Perenara and Dane Coles come on. England probably need to be ahead by that stage but even if they are within a score they have weapons of their own to edge home and in Farrell they have arguably the world’s best No 10 at moving his team around the park.
Slow it down and shut Barrett down
The selection of Sam Underhill shows how important the breakdown is going to be. He doesn’t do as much as I like to see from an openside going forward but his main job, along with Brad Shields, Mark Wilson and Maro Itoje, is to slow the ball down. If Barrett is waiting for the ball for more than three seconds he will be disrupted. New Zealand want to feel comfortable in their attacking shape, they want two-second ball but if England can slow it down it affects the run of the forwards, it affects Barrett’s depth and all of a sudden England will be in the game with 20 minutes to go. Underhill’s second job will be to target Barrett – off scrums and lineouts he will be going straight for him and trying to shut down the time and space.
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Use Ashton’s sixth sense
England are going to have to score tries against New Zealand so they will have no chance if they have as little territory and as little possession in the opposition 22 as last Saturday. And that is why Chris Ashton has been selected. He is one of the best workrate wings in the game, he has licence to roam, to look for inside ball and his tracking is brilliant. He has a sixth sense for the where the ball is going to be and if Henry Slade can make a half-break and slide through, which he is very good at, you can bank on Ashton being on his shoulder. In the recent Bledisloe Cup match we saw Australia make so many linebreaks but the support wasn’t there. With Ashton you know it will be and it is going to be a big test for Jack Goodhue. He will have to watch for Ashton on the inside because it is that extra pass, the two touches within one movement, that can break the All Blacks down. As Australia and South Africa have shown, you can score points against this New Zealand side. Nick Evans played 16 Tests for New Zealand