One defeat is damaging enough. Two in the space of eight days would surely end Ireland’s hopes of retaining the Six Nations, and perhaps also of regaining the affections of some of those fans who felt so cruelly disillusioned by their loss to England in Dublin a week ago.
Joe Schmidt’s team will be under considerable pressure at Murrayfield on Saturday afternoon against a Scotland side who though by no means perfect in their 33-20 win over Italy, still scored five tries to enhance the impression that under Gregor Townsend they are continuing to mature at a fair rate.
Scotland must improve ‘everything’ against Ireland, says Gregor Townsend
Ireland’s captain, Rory Best, is confident the pressure will not induce panic, however, and he is equally sure they know how to rectify matters. “We fell down last week but it doesn’t mean we throw everything out and attempt to start again,” the Ulster hooker said.
“We’ve built a lot of things over the last number of years and it’s times like this where you have to stick to what you know. We have to make sure we get our things right because if we produce something similar [to last week], the Scots are a great team and they’ve shown us that here as recently as two years ago.”
That day in 2017 produced plenty of frustration in Irish ranks as they went down 27-22, with Schmidt going out of his way to complain about the team bus being delayed en route to Murrayfield. Last week’s loss to England has also bred frustration and Best is welcoming the chance to exorcise it.
“There’s a lot of frustration in the camp after last week and it was a bit around the way we were perceived to be bullied, but it was probably mostly around our accuracy,” he said. “The accuracy was the thing we felt let us down the most. The good thing is it’s a seven-day turnaround to go again, and it wasn’t one of the fallow weeks [where] you have to wait two weeks.”
For their part, Scotland’s approach has been a low-key one and which began shortly after full-time last Saturday, when Townsend insisted his team would have to put in one of their “best-ever performances” to beat Ireland. Hence the decision to go for maximum possible experience in the starting lineup, and to bring in Sean Maitland in place of Blair Kinghorn, scorer of a hat-trick hero last week but who has been relegated to the bench.
Kinghorn’s prowess as a strike runner may yet have a say in the outcome, but it is more than likely that no single player will have as big a part to play as Storm Erik, which is expected to bring winds of up to 55mph swirling around Murrayfield. At pitch level that could well narrow the game down, restricting some of the wide moves that Scotland will need to stretch the Irish.
Ireland have been hit by a string of injuries – it was also announced on Friday that the lock Devin Toner will be out for two months because of ankle surgery – while Scotland welcome back Maitland and Jonny Gray as starters, with Fraser Brown and Pete Horne back on the bench.
The notion that the home squad is close to full strength could hardly be more inaccurate, however. Both WP Nel and Sam Skinner would have been involved on Saturday but for injury, and there are also the longer-term casualties, including all three members of what is arguably the first-choice back row: Magnus Bradbury, John Barclay and Hamish Watson.
Advantage Ireland when it comes to the breakdown, then. Advantage Ireland in midfield too, where the defensive vulnerability of Huw Jones is likely to be tested by Chris Farrell – one of five changes from last week – in a way the Italians could not manage.
But Scotland were at least sharper at the breakdown against Italy than they have been, and if they can avoid getting bogged down there Greig Laidlaw is confident they can find a way to get on top – albeit by a more circuitous route than the one taken by England.
“Everybody knows the way Scotland want to play the game,” the captain said. “We won’t really deviate from that, but we’ve got to be smart and pick the times when we play, so we’ll get a gauge on the weather when we arrive tomorrow and set a gameplan for that.
“Ireland will be hurting from England winning the physical battle, so that will be tough for us. We’re certainly not going to go out and try to play like England. We’re going to play like Scotland.”
If both teams play to their best, Ireland should get the better of a tight encounter. But the wilder the wind the greater the chance of the game being decided by a random mistake.