This time 12 months ago England were sitting where Ireland are now. They had just stuck 61 points on Scotland to retain their Six Nations title with a week to spare and were looking forward to a grand slam tilt on the final Saturday. They had won their previous 18 Tests and their captain was predicting an equally rosy future. “We’re ready as a team to take the next step,” said Dylan Hartley.
What a difference a year makes. Ireland are now deserved runaway Six Nations champions and ranked as the second-best team in the world while England’s confidence is evaporating by the day. On the trains and planes out of Paris on Sunday, after a 22-16 defeat against France, it was reminiscent of the bad old days when English rugby routinely underachieved and no shortcut back to the winners’ enclosure presented itself. Anyone who reckons England remain on course to be world champions in 2019 should stop talking to the fairies at the bottom of their gardens.
That is not to say successive away defeats have now rendered the entire Jones era null and void. As Ireland have reminded everyone, perceptions can change radically over a short period; it is not impossible that Joe Schmidt’s dominant side will yet be denied a grand slam at Twickenham. But if England really aspire to conquer all in Japan next year they need to confront some onrushing home truths.
“You’ve got to be as honest as you can with each other in these situations, from the top to the bottom,” said Jamie George, hooker understudy to the injured Hartley. “That’s the way we’re going to find the solutions.”
The most glaring matter is the breakdown. Lacking any kind of pacy openside or dynamic presence capable of blasting opponents off the ball at a time when the modern game increasingly demands such specialists, England are currently bringing a lemon to a knife fight. Injuries to Billy Vunipola and Sam Underhill have not helped but a rugby nation with England’s resources really should be able to find some half-decent alternatives.
Only a few weeks ago Jones was also suggesting the ominous form of the Irish provinces was irrelevant to Test rugby. Now the head coach is arguing that referees in the Pro14 and Top 14 permit a more intense contest for possession than in the standoffish Premiership. Even his own players sound confused. “I don’t think it’s anything to do with the leagues, to be honest,” George said. “In the last couple of games we haven’t attacked well enough. We need to get momentum. If you’re carrying into a brick wall it’s pretty easy to get over the ball. That’s probably what we need to look at first.”
The Saracens hooker is absolutely right. In Vunipola’s absence the ball-carrying yardage up front is nowhere near high enough. To concede 16 penalties and two free-kicks at this level is suicidal and serious flaws are also being exposed at half-back. Danny Care and George Ford are both quick-ball reliant and England have looked worryingly rudderless in their last two outings. It is reaching the point when Jones may have to switch Farrell to 10, unless he decides to veer deep into left field and pick the Wasps duo of Dan Robson and Danny Cipriani in South Africa this summer.
To do so, however, he would have to allow Cipriani to run the entire show. England’s players seem empowered to do almost nothing. Only in the closing moments in Paris did they toss away the script; it coincided with their best period of the game. Apart from the odd clever diagonal attacking kick against Wales and Sam Simmonds’ dancing feet in Rome, they have been way too predictable.
Schmidt’s Ireland rarely indulge in casual fripperies but their body language is on a different plane. They look strong, focused, united, resourceful and alert. England’s players and management look as if they have been put through a juice extractor. All the zest has gone, leaving the pith and more pips than Gladys Knight. Under Jones the idea is to train above match intensity before blowing opponents away at the weekends. Presently they are training like Tarzan and playing like Tintin.
Nor is this the first time in Jones’s coaching career that a fast start has been followed by a sharp dip. If the need is for someone to come in and, in sporting terms, instantly sort out dodgy plumbing there are few better. Sustaining that success for four years with the same personnel has generally been less easy. From the outside it feels as if everyone would derive more benefit from relaxing in a hammock than yet another gym flogged. Sometimes in life it is less about working harder than thinking smarter.
Which is where Ireland hold a clear edge at present; their half-backs are wonderfully decisive and there is a tactical clarity England have mislaid. Jones now has a dilemma: does he simply reinstate his old stagers and count the days until Vunipola returns or does he accept that more drastic measures are required?
This weekend’s selection will certainly be interesting, with Nathan Hughes and Courtney Lawes out injured and the Irish back row licking their lips. Kyle Sinckler and Luke Cowan-Dickie would both add front-row energy and Jones has belatedly seen sense and called up Exeter’s Don Armand, who could bolster the back row. If Farrell does shift to 10, why not play Ben Te’o alongside the in-form Henry Slade in midfield with the multi-talented Elliot Daly at 15? Something has to change if Ireland are to be denied their slam and England are to sidestep their first bottom-half finish since 2006.