James Joyce once wrote: “When I die Dublin will be written in my heart.” England’s players and coaches may yet feel similarly if they can fly home with perhaps the most satisfying victory of Eddie Jones’s tenure. Win or lose, the visitors’ first outing of 2019 will define more than just their immediate Six Nations prospects.
It is not just the outcome that matters. For both sides it is about dealing with pressure of an intensity seldom found outside a World Cup knockout fixture, of locating answers to questions with career‑shaping implications. A beefed-up England may have the brawn but do they have the collective rugby intellect to outwit Joe Schmidt and his on-field lieutenant Johnny Sexton? Can Ireland cope with the unaccustomed weight of expectation that comes with their lofty world ranking?
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The rival coaches are as sharp as they come but, alas, Schmidt and Jones cannot both win. The same applies to the Farrell family. Stir in a dash of Anglo-Irish Brexit frustration, serve it up as the entrée to the most eagerly awaited championship in years and a pretty epic occasion awaits.
Their starting XV, furthermore, contain 485 caps compared with Ireland’s 688, while those talking up England on the basis of their November upturn are conveniently overlooking Ireland’s historic autumn victory over the All Blacks. That day Schmidt’s men took a 16‑6 lead with half an hour left and held on expertly. Should England trail at half-time, even by a couple of points, they will do well to pierce the precision-engineered Irish defensive system that conceded only five penalties against New Zealand in 80 minutes.
England’s last sighting of the referee Jérôme Garcès was also against the All Blacks when Sam Underhill’s potentially glorious match-winning try was ruled out for a fractional offside that, following a hasty rewrite of the laws, would now be awarded. On the flip side Farrell can hardly blame misfortune if he is penalised or sent to the sin‑bin for tackling without properly using his arms. Should Farrell catch Sexton, for example, even a fraction late or high in the opening quarter the howls will be audible from Ballsbridge to Belfast. It is tough enough beating Ireland with 15 players; as England have discovered in the past, a careless card or two can prove extremely costly.
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Jones’s stormtroopers, naturally, have a very different scenario in mind. Robbie Henshaw may not have Rob Kearney’s positional sureness, Sexton has had little rugby lately and in many respects the sides look well matched. If Tuilagi and Billy Vunipola start rampaging over the gainline and supplying some momentum, it will be Ireland’s turn to feel a bit of heat regardless of the thermometer.
It is a dangerously overconfident Englishman, though, who assumes Schmidt has not been hatching another cunning tactical wheeze or that the prolific Jacob Stockdale will not be supplying his now-obligatory big-game touchdown. Ireland are not ranked No 2 in the world by accident and losing to England at this delicate stage in Anglo-Irish history will be all but unthinkable.
The old Irish tendency to fade in the final quarter is also a distant memory. While England have some decent impact replacements on the bench in Ellis Genge, Luke Cowan‑Dickie and Nathan Hughes, Ireland have Sean Cronin, Sean O’Brien, Joey Carbery and Jordan Larmour. Seldom nowadays do the Irish come up empty-handed, either at Test or provincial level, in duels of this magnitude.
Nor are they often second best at the breakdown or in the aerial contest, perhaps the two key areas where this game will be decided. For that reason it will rate among Jones’s finest hours should England fly home triumphant. More likely is that Schmidt’s side will find a way amid the tumult and seize on even the tiniest of red rose misjudgments. One member of the Farrell clan will be smiling at the final whistle but it may not be England’s captain.