Perhaps the easiest way to sum up England’s autumn is to grab a sheet of paper and half a dozen coloured pens. Then draw a graph plotting the potential growth in each of world rugby’s leading teams between now and next September. Which nation’s line is rising the steepest and how many rivals might they overtake in the next 10 months?
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In the England dressing room the verdict is unanimous: if the past month has been a mixed bag at times, the future is bright. Following three wins and a one-point defeat to New Zealand, all in the absence of several established players, they sense the English patient is stirring. As Eddie Jones put it in the wake of Saturday’s convincing trampling of Australia: “We want to be our best at the World Cup. This series was a step forward and the Six Nations will be another step forward again.”
For now England remain behind Ireland, New Zealand and an upwardly mobile Wales in the world rankings; there is no reason to expect all three not to improve further. But how much further? Their trio of Kiwi head coaches will have noted the increased power at Jones’s disposal and view them as a team to be avoided – along with Fiji following their remarkable victory over France – in the knockout phases of next year’s World Cup.
As both the All Blacks and the Wallabies can testify, Jones’s transitional side are becoming harder to knock over than their modest overall record of six wins and six losses in 2018 might suggest. Despite a couple of caveats – this was a worryingly non-vintage Australian XV and playing at home always helps – it is also impossible to ignore England’s resurgent scrummaging and the dents caused by Joe Cokanasiga and the returning Manu Tuilagi.
Jones has long yearned to recreate the beastly English packs of yore and his bespoke heavy-duty plans are finally taking shape. On Saturday night he singled out Kyle Sinckler, Mark Wilson and Cokanasiga for special mention, with Tuilagi, Maro Itoje and Ben Moon mentioned in despatches. Heal Billy and Mako Vunipola, Ellis Genge, Joe Launchbury, George Kruis, Tom Curry, Chris Robshaw, Dan Robson, Anthony Watson, Jack Nowell, Jonathan Joseph and Chris Ashton and, with Dan Cole, Mike Brown, Danny Care and Danny Cipriani also available, his 31-man eventual World Cup squad will contain few weak links.
Jones says he already has 85% of it inked in and, assuming everyone stays fit, that is probably right. Some defining calls on some of his senior men, however, remain, with the Six Nations the last serious chance to road-test key combinations. Moon or Genge at loosehead? Robshaw or Brad Shields at No 6, now the energetic Wilson has made such a good impression? Care or Robson as a back-up No 9? And, trickiest of all, what about the back three? If Daly, Jonny May and Ashton all make it, two from Nowell, Cokanasiga, Brown and Watson would probably have to miss out.
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On Saturday’s evidence the prospect of the 21-year-old Cokanasiga looming large in Japan has sharply increased; two tries in his first two Tests have been far from the young giant’s only calling card. What if Jones calls Ireland’s strong-arm bluff and picks him to start alongside Tuilagi, Ben Te’o and Owen Farrell in a monster truck backline behind a souped-up front five, all of them Test Lions, and a more dynamic back-row? According to England’s hooker Jamie George, the rest of the 2019 Six Nations field should brace themselves. “Big Joe on the wing: he’s a freak,” confirmed George. “On Wednesday we did a short-sided game and he made me look so silly. Physically he is incredible; jeez, he’s a threat. People like that have the X factor – there aren’t many like that in world rugby at the minute.”
English supporters, clearly, should not get too carried away: every world-class side requires brain as well as brawn and their side’s attacking shape, interestingly, improved after George Ford came on. Even then the slick offloading of the All Blacks in Italy belonged in a different class, as did Ireland’s level of execution in Dublin the previous weekend.
But then think of Ashton or Daly at Tuilagi’s elbow once the latter has had a few more games, or imagine Cokanasiga thundering past defenders in the forthcoming Six Nations? If nothing else, England have some formidable fresh ammunition. “It is exciting,” confirmed Sinckler, whose carrying also made a conspicuous difference against Australia. “We know the way we want to play. It’s an English way and we want to be confrontational.”
Jones’s three main areas of tactical focus will be lineout defence, an even stronger scrum and a more accurate kicking game but, as George points out, the opening quarter against New Zealand is the obvious starting point. “It probably gave us the belief that: ‘Yeah, we can do this, we’re getting somewhere.’ If we had been a bit more clinical in that game we’d be four from four.”
The players’ mood is certainly very different compared with the end of the last Six Nations, when Jones’s troops trailed in a weary fifth. “There’s an edge to us at the moment that I’m really enjoying,” confirmed George. “It’s difficult to put a word on it … I think it’s just that confidence, that inner belief. You know we’re doing something special.” November was not perfect but England have high hopes for 2019.