New Zealand have looked down on the rest from the top of the world rankings for more than 10 years, but their position appears a little less secure after a Rugby Championship campaign during which they lost at home against a resurgent South Africa and avoided being doubled on Saturday only by fashioning two late tries.
The All Blacks were discomfited by a hustling South Africa side that only two years ago was branded a fiasco by its then head coach Allister Coetzee. He was sacked in February despite an improvement in 2017 and replaced by Rassie Erasmus. The new coach’s first act was to consider more players who were based outside the country and it was the departure through injury of two of them on Saturday, the Wasps full-back Willie le Roux and the Sale scrum-half Faf de Klerk, that helped turn the momentum of the match, along with the unforced substitution of the hooker Malcolm Marx eight minutes from time.
Tactics not theatrics spur Wallabies’ Salta second act reversal
Erasmus declared after the first of two stunning comebacks last weekend – Australia would go on and overturn a 31-7 half-time deficit against Argentina in Salta and clamber off the bottom of the table – that South Africa had a chance of winning the World Cup, something that would have prompted laughter eight months ago. His side are fifth in the world rankings, but will overtake England if they win at Twickenham on 3 November and would then have third-placed Wales in their sights, their final opponents next month.
Where New Zealand have an advantage over South Africa and Australia is on the bench. All three countries have lost several players to clubs in Europe and Japan in recent years with only the All Blacks not considering those who are not part of their Super Rugby franchises. Erasmus’s strength in depth will be tested at Twickenham, when he will be without Le Roux and De Klerk along with the back-rower Francois Louw and the prop Vincent Koch, because it is an international outside the official window and as they play in the Premiership their clubs are not obliged to release them.
New Zealand will be in Japan on the day England face South Africa, taking on the World Cup hosts a week after meeting Australia in Yokohama as the All Blacks head coach, Steve Hansen, begins his preparations for next year’s tournament in earnest: they face South Africa in Yokohama during the tournament. Hansen is taking a squad of 32 for the friendly against the Wallabies and then bringing over another 19 while sending 22 on to London to prepare for the 10 November match with England, the first time the two sides will have faced off at Twickenham since 2013.
In September last year, New Zealand’s lead at the top of the rankings was nearly five points over England. Now they are fewer than three in front of Ireland who, since losing the 2016 summer series in South Africa, have won 19 of their 23 Tests, clinching a series in Australia and defeating the All Blacks in Chicago.
They face New Zealand in Dublin one week after England host the All Blacks, who are waiting on the fitness of the second-row Brodie Retallick, a player even the best team in the world struggle to replace. Ireland may have the opportunity to head the rankings for the first time and will look to exploit a weakness exposed by the Lions last year and South Africa.
The Lions put New Zealand under pressure with their line speed, making it difficult for the All Blacks to get the ball wide. They did not allow Aaron Smith to dictate from scrum-half, so reducing the effectiveness of his half-back partner Beauden Barrett. It required fitness as well as discipline, qualities Ireland possess.
Like South Africa and Australia, the question with Ireland is their strength in depth. Johnny Sexton’s fitness remains crucial but he may be without his long-term scrum-half Conor Murray next month. Murray has not played for Munster this season because of a neck problem and will not travel to Exeter on Saturday for the European Champions Cup match.
All Black Sam Cane out for three months after breaking neck in South Africa
Australia will be relieved not to be facing Ireland, regardless of Murray’s fitness. The comeback in Salta may have kept Michael Cheika in place as head coach, although this week he will report to the board of Rugby Australia to explain another underwhelming campaign. At least Australia can look forward to playing Wales, a side they have beaten in 13 consecutive internationals since their last defeat in Cardiff in 2008, often defying form. The Wallabies’ fall since they reached the 2015 World Cup final can only partly be explained by the players they have lost. The component parts are there for a strong team – with Israel Folau, Kurtley Beale, Bernard Foley and Will Genia behind and experience at forward that has been enhanced by the return of David Pocock – but they lack concentration in attack and defence.
Argentina finished bottom of the table for the sixth time in seven years but under their new head coach, Mario Ledesma, won two matches for the first time. Cheika’s assistant in the last World Cup has introduced a dash of pragmatism and England’s World Cup opponents, who meet Ireland, France and Scotland next month, are, like the Rugby Championship itself, looking up – even if there are real tests to come in a series that promises to be much brighter than the typical November day.