World Cups always feel like watersheds. Eddie Jones has reminded us often enough that everything else is just sparring; that all that matters is the date of the final – 2 November – and ensuring England are at their peak when the latest four-year cycle comes to an end. Except 2019 seems different, not least because there is so much uncertainty as to what will come next. Put simply, no one really knows what the international landscape beyond Japan 2019 will look like and that only adds to the intrigue.
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There is plenty of intrigue already surrounding the first World Cup to be staged in Asia, away from the sport’s traditional strongholds. Throw in the fact that Ireland have mounted a genuine challenge to New Zealand, the creeping sense that the balance of power is shifting from south to north and the narrative of Jones’s return to Japan – sure to follow England’s campaign every step of the way – and it is quite the melting pot.
If it is too strong to say a new world order was established last year, it was certainly shaken. Consider that there were no northern hemisphere teams involved in the final two weeks of the 2015 World Cup and then that three of the top four positions in the world rankings are currently occupied by Ireland, Wales and England.
New Zealand remain the team to beat but there was a wobble towards the end of 2018, raising questions as to whether the All Blacks are in decline, or at least approaching that stage. Which brings us back to the rugby landscape post-2019 and all its uncertainty. Four of the top six teams in the world will have a new head coach – including New Zealand – and there is a fair chance England and Australia will join them. The San Francisco agreement – hammered out in January last year – is due to begin in 2020 but precisely what the longer-term global calendar will look like remains unclear as talk of a World League continues.
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The argument in favour of it is financial, a response to the centralisation of power in the hands of the Premiership and French clubs. For it is naive to think that the rise in player salaries is going to slow down, as much as the Premiership claims its £230m windfall will not go on wages, and that will only weaken the southern hemisphere nations. The most fascinating subplot of the World Cup is whether New Zealand, South Africa and Australia can still prevail over market forces. Even if they do you wonder if they are just holding back the tide.
But if there is uncertainty as to what will happen on the field, it is matched by the sense of a step into the unknown off it. The tournament’s director, Alan Gilpin, has described this year’s World Cup as the most challenging and it is easy to see why. To put it mildly the climate in Japan in September is changeable and the threat of earthquakes is only too apparent, not to mention that of typhoons that would also cause major disruption. There are a number of cultural differences too for players, coaches and spectators to overcome, including the need for tattoos to be covered up in public swimming pools and baths.